copper wrote:
What is the alternative, Max?
what I see happening is the creation of a third party that is conservative on social issues and center to center left on economic issues.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...cially_liberal
As of 2007 41% of Americans say they are say they are conservative on fiscal issues while 43% are moderates and only 12% are liberals. 37% are conservative on social issues while 30% are moderates and 30% are liberals. The biggest single group is the 24% that is conservative on both fiscal and social issues while only 17% are moderates and only 9% are liberals both socially and fiscally.
24% of Americans are conservative in both categories (social and fiscal) and another 21% is conservative in one category or the other. So 46% of Americans are not liberals either socially or fiscally.
17% of Americans are moderates in both categories.
Only 29% of the Americans are liberals in one category or the other.
So conservatives would need the votes of only 29.4% plus 1 vote of the moderates to win an election (29.4% of the 17% that are moderates in both categories to have 50% of the vote plus 1 vote to have a majority). Liberals could win 100% of the votes from moderates and still only have 46% of the vote.
The only reason liberals ever win an election in a two-way race is because few people who are conservative on social issues make their electoral choices based only on social issues. A fiscally moderate party that has conservative positions on social issues could easily win a national election.
I don’t have the statistics at the moment, but I have seen it reported that while Obama carried the state of California with majorities from both black and Hispanic voters these same voters gave majority support to California’s ban on same-sex marriage even though Obama supports same-sex marriage/civil unions. I haven’t seen the electoral breakdown, but Obama also carried the state of Florida while Florida voters were enacting a same-sex marriage ban.
There is a reservoir of social conservatism in the minority community that Republicans will never be able to tap in to because of their unholy alliance with libertarians. And at the same time social conservatives may someday decide to abandon the GOP because the GOP really doesn’t want social conservatives around except on Election Day.
Election results show that most voters vote mainly on economic issues, but at the same time a candidate/party is not hurt by being socially conservative. If McCain and Co. had gotten off of their less government rhetoric, the last election would have been much closer. But then the country cannot afford a bigger government.